USGA Handicapping Manual 2008-2011
Appendix E – Exceptional Tournament Score Probability Table
| Net Differential | hdcp. 0-5 | hdcp. 6-12 | hdcp.13-21 | hdcp. 22-30 | hdcp. 30+ |
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| -1 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 |
| -2 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 13 | 10 |
| -3 | 57 | 51 | 43 | 23 | 15 |
| -4 | 151 | 121 | 87 | 40 | 22 |
| -5 | 379 | 276 | 174 | 72 | 35 |
| -6 | 790 | 536 | 323 | 130 | 60 |
| -7 | 2349 | 1200 | 552 | 229 | 101 |
| -8 | 20111 | 4467 | 1138 | 382 | 185 |
| -9 | 48219 | 27877 | 3577 | 695 | 359 |
| -10 | 125000 | 84300 | 37000 | 1650 | 874 |
The values in the table are the odds of shooting a net differential* EQUAL TO OR BETTER THAN the number in the left column.
*A net differential is the subtraction of a player’s Handicap Index from the Handicap Differential for a particular tournament score. This becomes a negative value when the player scores much better than the player’s Handicap Index.
Example: A player with a Handicap Index of 10.5 shoots a 74 from a set of tees with a USGA Course Rating of 71.2 and a Slope Rating of 126.
74 – 71.2 = 2.8 x 113 / 126 = 2.5 Handicap Differential
2.5 – 10.5 = – 8.0 Net Differential
From the chart, the odds are 4,467 to 1 of this occurring.